President Joe Biden has seen a massive drop in support from black women, which may be a “warning sign for Democrats” ahead of the 2024 election, according to a poll from The Cut released Wednesday.
The majority of black women, 64%, said they plan on voting for Biden in the upcoming presidential election, according to the poll. However, this is 30 points lower than Biden’s support in the 2020 election, where 95% black women voted for him, according to a 2021 report from the Pew Research Center.
Across black women, 18% said they would vote for former President Donald Trump, 10% said they would vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr and 2% said they would vote for independent candidate Cornel West, according to the poll.
Black voters, particularly black women, have long been a reliable voting demographic for Democrats.
“If the 2020 presidential election left the Democratic Party with a clear message, it was that Joe Biden made it to the White House thanks to the loyalty of Black voters who showed up to vote in swing states in droves,” the Cut’s report of the poll reads. “If positive perceptions of Biden, Harris, or the Democratic Party decline before Election Day, Black women may be less inclined to go to the polls.”
Younger black women are less likely to vote for Biden, with 58% of black women between the ages of 18-34 saying they will vote for the incumbent compared 68% of black women between the ages 35 to 55 who said the same thing, according to the poll.
The opposite is true for Trump, with 21% of black women between ages of 18 to 34 saying they would vote for the former president compared to 16% of black women between the ages of 35 to 55, according to the poll.
Trump has managed to pull some support away from Biden among black Americans. More than a quarter of black likely voters said they support Trump, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll from June of 2024, which is a significant uptick from just 5% support from black registered voters during the previous election cycle, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll from June of 2020.
“In a lot of ways, Donald Trump is, I should say for a lot of people, Donald Trump is the most crystal-clear example of the American dream,”Van Lathan, former TMZ personality, said in a June interview with Don Lemon. “He is somebody who does whatever he wants, no matter who he hurts. He is somebody who says whatever he wants and he’s only stronger because of it. Like, there’s a freedom that some people aspire to in America, and it only comes with the ability to crush something.”
Black women reported that their top issues are racial justice and equity, inflation and the economy as well as crime, according to the poll. At the same time, only 28% and 21% of black women said they think the country is moving in the right direction on racial justice and crime respectively.
“They don’t see things changing in their neighborhoods, and the political promises they’re aware of from Joe Biden, they can see very obviously that they didn’t happen,” Lathan said in the interview.
The Cut surveyed 1,200 black women ages 18 to 55 from June 3 to June 14.
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