A 2022 generic congressional ballot is revealing numbers that have not been seen in a poll’s forty-year history.
In the midterm election vote, Republicans are holding a lead. According to a poll by ABC News and The Washington Post, 51% of registered voters said they would vote for a Republican if the midterm elections “were today.” In comparison, 41% said they would support a Democrat candidate in their congressional district.
The question in the poll has been asked since November 1981, and this is the biggest lead for Republicans in it.
“Indeed, it’s only the second time the GOP has held a statistically significant advantage (the other was +7 points in January 2002) and the ninth time it’s held any numerical edge at all,” ABC News reports.
The poll was conducted Nov. 7-10, among 1,001 adults, including 882 registered voters.
As ABC News also writes, “While a year is a lifetime in politics, the Democratic Party’s difficulties are deep; they include soaring economic discontent, a president who’s fallen 12 percentage points underwater in job approval and a broad sense that the party is out of touch with the concerns of most Americans — 62% say so.”
New 2022 generic congressional ballot from ABC News and the Washington Post:
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 14, 2021
• 𝗚𝗢𝗣: 51%
• 𝗗𝗲𝗺: 41%
This is the largest lead Republicans have held in this poll over the past 40 years (!!!)
👉🏻 https://t.co/mu9jFBtTZN pic.twitter.com/p2FtRrazOH
The poll also showed President Joe Biden’s job approval at a “new low.” Forty-one percent approve of his job performance, while 53% disapprove.
On his poll numbers regarding the coronavirus pandemic, 47% approve, while 49% disapprove. This is, however, “numerically (albeit not significantly) underwater for the first time,” ABC News notes.
Just 41% approve of Pres. Biden's job performance overall, while 53% disapprove, according to new @ABC News/WaPo poll. https://t.co/LBfDk6AcZK pic.twitter.com/cqGln3thVv
— ABC News (@ABC) November 15, 2021
As The Washington Post reports on the poll, “Overall, the survey offers a set of harsh judgments about the president’s performance and the state of the economy. Together, they send a stark warning to Democrats about their prospects in the 2022 midterm contests.”
Democrats hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives. And, as The Wall Street Journal writes, “a number of factors are making the Democratic challenge steeper at a time when Republicans will need only five additional seats [in the House] for a majority.”