Republican strategist Scott Jennings said the GOP would need to adapt to its new voter coalition following election results Tuesday night that were mixed for the party’s fortunes.
Republican candidates held two vacant House seats in Florida by solid margins that were still less than half of those President Donald Trump secured there in the 2024 presidential election. Jennings noted that Republican voters “turn out at lower rates,” particularly with special elections.
“It’s a turnout game. And this is a condition of the Republican Party that it’s true, we now have a party that’s made up of lower-propensity voters. They tend not to vote when Donald Trump’s not on the ballot,” Jennings said on CNN. “They turn out at lower rates, especially when elections are happening at odd times. And this is an issue the party is going to have to grapple with.”
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In Wisconsin, liberal Susan Crawford beat conservative Brad Schmiel in the race to fill a vacant seat on the state Supreme Court.
Jennings then discussed what the implications of the special elections were for Republican members of the House of Representatives.
“Democrats have these higher-propensity voters who turn out for everything, and it — I think it creates a mirage of what you just said, that maybe people are switching,” Jennings continued. “I don’t think they‘re switching. I just think the highest-propensity voters are turning out.”
The special elections in Florida were held to replace former Republican Reps. Matt Gaetz, who was Trump’s initial nominee for attorney general before withdrawing, and Michael Waltz, who serves as Trump’s national security advisor. Republican State Sen. Randy Fine defeated Democratic candidate Josh Weil by 14 percentage points in the race to replace Waltz in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, while former Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis trounced Democratic candidate Gay Valimont by 14.8 points.
Trump carried both districts by 30 or more points in November’s general election.
“My advice to House Republicans right now is, eat healthy, get on your treadmill, try not to die if you live in a district that’s any worse than either of these two between now and next November, or at least now and this summer when we got to pass a reconciliation bill, because it‘s thin margins,” Jennings said. “But the Republicans, I think, are going to hold this thin margin and hopefully hold it long enough to get Donald Trump‘s legislative agenda across the line.”
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