Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton could announce a primary challenge to Republican Texas Sen. John Cornyn in the coming months.
Paxton told Punchbowl News Tuesday that he is seriously considering a run to challenge Cornyn, but acknowledged he would need roughly $20 million to make the race competitive. If Paxton decides to run, the race could become one of the most expensive primaries of the 2026 cycle and could be the toughest reelection fight Cornyn has faced in his Senate career.
“I think it’s just time,” Paxton told Punchbowl. “He’s had his chance. He hasn’t performed well, and the voters know it. You can go a long time without people paying attention. And they’re paying attention now.”
Paxton said his reelection announcement hinges on securing enough fundraising commitments over the next several months to mount a competitive challenge against Cornyn. “I think I can win if I have $20 million,” Paxton added.
Cornyn’s office confirmed to the Texas Tribune last week that the longtime Texas Republican is seeking a fifth term in 2026. Paxton could face long odds due to Cornyn’s proven track record of raising massive amounts of money and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, backing the incumbent.
Paxton has sought to cast Cornyn as out-of-touch with conservative grassroots and unpopular with Texas Republican voters.
Paxton has a 62% approval rating among GOP-identifying voters while Cornyn is underwater at 49%, according to the most recent polling aggregate by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. Paxton has a 37% approval rating among overall voters while Cornyn sits at 30%, according to Texas Politics Project affiliated polling.
“I’ve run these primaries in Texas before. I honestly don’t see how [Cornyn] overcomes his numbers,” Paxton told Punchbowl. “If the numbers were the other way, I wouldn’t be sitting here.”
Paxton criticized Cornyn for backing legislation to increase background checks for firearm purchases for people under 21 and fund state enforcement of red flag laws after the 2022 Uvalde, Texas school shooting that ended the lives of 19 students and two teachers. Cornyn introduced legislation in January to allow concealed carry license holders to carry their guns in any state, the Daily Caller News Foundation first reported.
The attorney general also excoriated Cornyn over his votes to send billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine. The Texas senator praised Trump’s efforts to end the Ukraine War in a speech on the Senate floor on March 6.
“After 23 years he’s finally got a real opponent — potential opponent — he’s gonna do that, right?” Paxton told Punchbowl. “I mean, no one’s gonna be surprised by that. Voters are not stupid. Like suddenly he veers to the right? We’re less than a year from the primary now. And as soon as it’s over… he goes back to being John Cornyn.”
Cornyn has voted to confirm all of Trump’s cabinet nominees and supported Trump-backed legislation, including the Laken Riley Act and the Halt Fentanyl Act, in the 119th Congress. Though Cornyn lost his bid to replace retiring Republican Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell as Senate Republican leader, he is expected to play a key role in extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts through his seat on the Senate Finance Committee.
Cornyn ended 2024 with more than $4.12 million on hand, according to FEC disclosure data.
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