With just one week left until the Nov. 8 election, the situation for Democratic candidates across the country appears to be getting worse.
On Tuesday, Dave Wasserman, a senior editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report delivered some bad news for Democrats as it shifted its election ratings for 10 House races in the Republicans’ direction.
“The scariest Halloween reality for House Democrats is the number of seats President Biden carried comfortably in 2020 that are at genuine risk a week out,” Wasserman wrote.
He continued, “If you’re looking for House upsets, the best places to watch might be blue states where there’s no competitive statewide races driving turnout, Democratic governors are underperforming and GOP candidates have been able to seize on high crime and inflation.”
One Democratic strategist told him, “I’ve never seen an election where the signs are this divergent and…lumpy.”
“It’s less nationalized than we’re accustomed to, and there’s more weakness in the blue end of the battlefield,” the strategist added.
Wasserman noted, “We’re moving ten seats in the GOP’s direction – all in very blue states and all in districts Biden carried by between eight and 20 points in 2020.”
In The Cook Political Report’s Ratings, California’s 9th Congressional district was moved from a “likely” Democrat to a “lean” Democrat race. California’s 26th Congressional District was moved from a “solid” Democratic race to a “lean” Democratic.
Meanwhile, California’s 47th Congressional District was shifted from a “lean” Democratic race to a toss-up.
Illinois’ 6th and 14th Congressional Districts, as well as New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, were shifted to “lean” Democrat.
Meanwhile, New York’s 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts were shifted to toss-up races. And its 25th District was shifted from a “solid” Democratic race to a “likely” Democratic one.
And finally, Oregon’s 5th Congressional District was moved from a toss-up to a “lean” Republican.
NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes: 10 more blue state districts move in Republicans' direction, including #CA47 Rep. Katie Porter (D) from Lean D to Toss Up. Full analysis: https://t.co/ldqos2Pi8J pic.twitter.com/rD40MW6vdw
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2022
As Wasserman noted, “In our newest ratings, 212 seats at least lean towards Republicans, 188 seats at least lean towards Democrats, and there are 35 Toss Ups.”
“That means if all the Lean, Likely, and Solid races hold, Republicans would only need to win six of the 35 Toss Ups to take the majority, whereas Democrats would need to win 29 of the 35 to keep control. We’re sticking with our overall outlook of a GOP gain between 12 and 25 seats,” he explained.
Several other election forecasters predict Republicans have a good shot at flipping the House next week.
FiveThirtyEight gives the party an 83 in 100 chance of winning the chamber.