CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten warned Monday that Vice President Kamala Harris’ polling averages in the Great Lakes area are significantly lower than other Democratic nominees in the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Harris’ averages in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin dropped from 2-point advantages in September to 1-point leads, which stands significantly lower than President Joe Biden and former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s 8-point leads in those states on Oct. 14 of 2016 and 2020, Enten said on “The Lead with Jake Tapper.” The CNN reporter noted that Clinton lost those states and that Biden won by slim margins.
“I have never seen such consistently tight polling such as this across the battleground states in all the time I have been looking and covering politics … I think this is what gives Democrats agita because yeah, it looks like Harris is slightly ahead, though well within the margin of error, but compared to where we were 4 years ago and 8 years ago, at this point Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, an average across all three,” Enten said. “Right now, you got Harris by 1 point above average of the three, but Joe Biden was up by 8, Hillary Clinton was up by 8.”
“I don’t have to tell you that Hillary Clinton lost all three of these states. Joe Biden barely won all three of these states,” Enten continued. “So I think the question that Democrats have to ask themselves at this particular point is can Harris actually hold on given that Joe Biden barely did and Hillary Clinton did not across these three states??”
A FiveThirty Eight poll found Biden leading Trump by 8.4 points in Wisconsin on Nov. 3, 2020, though he only won the state 49.6% to 48.9% on election night.
Biden won Michigan by 3 points in 2020 after polls indicated that he had a near 8-point advantage, another pollconducted by FiveThirtyEight found. The president also won Pennsylvania in 2020 50% to 48.8%, though a FiveThirtyEight poll indicated he led the then-president by nearly 5 points.
Enten said that Trump will secure 312 electoral votes if he outperforms Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan by just 1 point.
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