CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten on Tuesday broke down how the 2024 election is the most “historically close” presidential race in over 50 years.
The numbers from the final polls have calculated that an electoral victory for the current leader would likely amount to 276 electoral votes, which is just 6 votes higher than the 270 needed to become president-elect, Enten said. The past close races added up to 281 electoral votes in 2000 and 296 in 2004, making the 2024 election the “closest polls” ever seen since at least 1972.
“I took a look at the final polls, and then I basically calculated out what the electoral map would look like and how high up would the leading candidate’s electoral total get,” Enten said. “And what we essentially see is right now the leader’s electoral total is 276 electoral votes based upon the polls. If you go back since ’72 and try to find the closest years, if you go back to 2000, which of course was a historically close election, at the end of the campaign, the poll leader’s electoral vote total was just 281 electoral votes. That’s where [former Democratic nominee Al] Gore was in the final polls of that campaign.”
“If you go back to 2004, [former President] George W. Bush was at 296 electoral votes, so based upon the polls at this point, we are heading into the election with the closest polls in the Electoral College that we have ever seen at least in the last 50 years,” Enten continued.
Vice President Kamala Harris needs to win at least three out of the four battleground states in order to win, which includes North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Enten said. Republican nominee Donald Trump leads in North Carolina by less than 1 point while Harris leads in the Great Lakes states by less than 1 point, meaning either candidate could easily win by narrow margins.
“Basically, the four states that are likely to determine this outcome are all within 1 point,” Enten said. “And when we span this out to the Electoral College, what do we get? We get exactly this, Harris with that 276 electoral votes because she carries these Great Lake battleground states, right? But, let’s just say we flip Pennsylvania and the polls’ results aren’t exactly right. What do we get? Flip Pennsylvania to red, and then we got Trump to 281 electoral votes which is not very much of a long shot given at this particular point, the race in Pennsylvania is within a single point.”
The final polls ahead of a presidential election have never had such close results in the battleground states since 1972, Enten added.
Trump is narrowly leading Harris in Pennsylvania by 0.3 points, while Harris leads in Wisconsin by 0.5 point and in Michigan by 0.3 points, according to FiveThirtyEight polls. The former president holds a 0.8 point lead in North Carolina and a 1.5 point lead in Georgia.
Harris’ averages in the Great Lake battleground states are significantly lower than President Joe Biden’s 8-point leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020, Enten said during an Oct. 14 segment. Trump also led in every single swing state with a 0.8 point overall lead as of Friday, according to RealClear polling averages.
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