CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten explained on Thursday that the reason for young voters shifting from President Joe Biden to former President Donald Trump is likely due to their desire for significant change in the country.
Some polling has suggested Biden’s plunge in young voter support is related to his perceived support of Israel in its conflict with terrorist organization Hamas, but the movement away from the president began well before the October 7 Hamas attacks. Enten on “CNN News Central” said that the true reason for Biden’s loss of young voters is that they want “major change,” and believe Trump is the one to deliver on that desire.
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“Take a look here. Age 18 to 24, Biden won this group by 32 points the last cycle over Donald Trump,” Enten told host John Berman. “Look at where the polling is now. Joe Biden still leads, but just by seven points. That is a drop, John. Let’s see if I can do this math. I believe it is a drop of 25 percentage points.”
“And compare that to the rest of the electorate, where we’re looking at a fairly similar race to where we were four years ago, where Joe Biden won those voters by two points last time around,” he continued. “Now, Donald Trump leads by two. So, that’s a movement of four points. But four points, I don’t need to tell you, John, is significantly less than a movement of 25 points among those voters under the age of 25.”
Berman noted that voters under 25 are a small portion of the electorate, but that the Biden campaign still must be “a little nervous” about these numbers.
“This question, to me, gets really at the reason of why this might be occurring: Do you prefer or want a presidential candidate who promises to restore normalcy to Washington D.C. or bring major change to the country?” Enten said. “Overall, 54% of likely battleground state voters say they want a candidate who will restore normalcy to Washington D.C. But look at voters under the age of 30. It is a total flip of that. ‘Bring major change to the U.S.’ Look at this, 65% of voters under the age of 30 say they want a candidate to bring major change to the U.S.”
“And in that same poll, you know which candidate they thought would bring major change to the country? They thought Donald Trump would,” the data reporter added. “So, all of a sudden, you match up those two questions and you get a pretty clear understanding of why younger voters seem to be becoming more Republican versus four years ago.”
Enten also said this is not unprecedented as young voters have a pattern in recent history of switching parties.
“I want you to go back in time. Look at aged 18 to 24-year-old voters. Look at the margins, and look at this back in the early 2000’s. In 2000, those under the age of 25 were tied between Bush and Gore,” he said. “Look at what happened in 2004: they started shifting, becoming more blue. John Kerry won ’em by 13 points. Barack Obama, in 2008, won ’em by 32 points. We had a movement of 32 points over just eight years.”
“Remember, John, those voters under the age of 25 right now were at best born in 2000,” Enten added. “They were probably born later than 2000. They don’t remember 9/11. They really don’t remember the Bush years. They barely remember the Obama years. It’s perhaps time that we’re going to see a change like we saw earlier in the 21st century.”
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