CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten on Thursday broke down how either Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican nominee Donald Trump could win in a “blowout” victory, despite the polls showing a historically close race.
Whoever wins the 2024 election has a 60% chance of securing over 300 electoral votes and a 40% chance of winning less than that, despite the polls being very close, Enten said. Harris could possibly secure 319 electoral votes if she wins all seven key battleground states, while Trump would win 312 electoral votes if the results in those states go in his favor.
“If you look across the 7 key swing states, the 7 closest states, in all of them, the margin right now is under 2 points,” Enten said. “But keep in mind, polling ain’t perfect, my dear friends,” Enten said. “On average, since 1972 in the battleground states, the average error in the key swing states is 3.4 points. So if all of the battleground states all go in one direction, you could end up with a map like this for Kamala Harris where she wins all the key battleground states, including North Carolina, wins Georgia, wins Arizona, wins Nevada, she gets to 319. That’s even better than Biden did.”
“But, it could go in the other direction whereby Trump wins all the key Great Lake battleground states, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada and he gets to 312 electoral votes,” Enten continued. ”
Both Harris and Trump’s possible results would be better than President Joe Biden or the former president did when they won in the 2016 and 2020 elections, Enten said.
Polling errors in all of the swing states have historically moved in one candidate’s favor in past elections, with the polls underestimating former President Barack Obama by 92% in 2012 and Trump by 83% in 2016 and 100% in 2020, Enten said.
“So this time around, don’t be surprised if the swing state polls, when they underestimate one candidate, they underestimate all of them in the states and that would lead to a relatively Electoral College blowout with one of the candidates winning at least 300 electoral votes,” Enten said.
A new poll published by the Wall Street Journal found Trump leading Harris nationally 47% to 45%. The former president also held a 0.8 point lead against Harris across every swing state as of Friday, according to RealClear polling averages.
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