Third-party candidates in the 2024 presidential race previously pulled support away from the Democratic ticket, but since President Joe Biden’s withdrawal, their presence has helped swing the race back in Vice President Kamala Harris’s favor, political strategists told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Exhausted Biden voters may have warmed up to the idea of a presidency led by Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the strategists explained in comments provided to the DCNF. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy‘s initial support for left-wing priorities boosted Republicans by sapping support from the Democratic nominee among disaffected liberals, but his backers within the Democratic Party appear to have soured on him — contributing to a polling surge for the Harris-Walz ticket, analysts said.
“Kennedy, while he was helping Trump initially, scored in the double digits,” John McLaughlin, a campaign pollster for former President Donald Trump and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told the DCNF. “But when Biden dropped out and he picked Harris as his successor, some Democrats left Kennedy and went back to Harris because they were unfavorable to Biden.”
“He may have been scoring in the double digits before, but he’s now going into single digits,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “And it’s become a close two-way race which makes it really hard for a third-party candidate to get a significant share of the vote.”
Multiple polls showed Kennedy with double-digit support in June just before Biden announced his withdrawal from the race. A Forbes/HarrisX poll put Kennedy at 16%, with Trump at 41%, leading Biden at 36%. A separate Quinnipiac poll put Kennedy at 11%, giving Trump an edge at 43% while Biden fell back to 37%.
“He was going to take away the Trump vote because he was going after COVID vaccines, and he was going after other things that are sort of cultural touchstones of the deep online activists on the right,” Democratic strategist Dheeraj Chand told the DCNF. “But he started making other overtures to left-wing priorities, and that cost him some Trump voter support and gained him some left-wing voters.”
Although Kennedy may have previously appealed more to disaffected Democratic voters, Chand said his foreign policy stance set him back significantly with the left-wing base.
“I think he permanently alienated a huge amount of left-wing voters,” Chand told the DCNF. “And he’s getting back towards aiming for Trump voters, like when he came out and said that he was firmly behind the Israel-Hamas war.”
As of early August, Kennedy’s support has plummeted to 2%, according to an Economist/YouGov poll. Since Biden dropped, a significant share of voters have gone to the Democratic ticket giving Harris a two point edge at 45% and Trump at 43%.
Another August poll shows that of the 5% support Kennedy had obtained, 2% came from Democrats and a slightly larger share of 3% came from Republicans. With Kennedy’s candidacy in the mix, Harris is leading Trump by three points at 48% and 45% respectively.
“It was a place for some Democrats and some disaffected independents who didn’t like Trump or Biden,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “That’s where they were going. He still has that potential spoiler, but he’s hurt by the fact that he can’t win.”
Although Harris has partially pulled votes away from Kennedy, McLaughlin said the polling boost might not last.
“I think as the honeymoon wears off, some of those voters may go back to Kennedy,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “But he doesn’t have a path to victory. It’s just a ‘none of the above’ vote.”
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