Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is looking for a win in the Michigan Democratic presidential primary, a state he won in 2016 in a shocking upset victory.
However, a pair of new polls from that state could spell trouble for the Vermont senator. A Detroit Free Press poll released on Monday found former Vice President Joe Biden leading Sanders 51% to 27% just a day before the Michigan primary.
Similarly, a Monmouth University survey, also released on Monday, gave Biden a double-digit lead, with 51% of respondents saying they would support Biden and 36% saying they would support Sanders.
Sanders won Michigan’s Democratic primary in 2016, despite polls from the days leading up to the primary that found former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton holding a double-digit lead over Sanders.
Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, noted that Biden appears to be polling well among the same demographics that powered Sanders to his win in the state. However, he added that it is possible that voters in Michigan could deliver another shocking victory for Sanders.
“Biden appears to have the advantage because he is doing well among some groups that Sanders won four years ago. But as we learned in 2016, Michigan can defy expectations.”
Additionally, the Monmouth poll found that those who identify as Democrats say they favor Biden over Sanders by almost 30 percentage points. Meanwhile, respondents who identify as independents or Republicans appear to be fairly split between the two presidential hopefuls.
Of the states holding primaries on Tuesday, Michigan has the most delegates up for grabs. If Biden wins the state, he could build a delegate lead that could shut down Sanders’ chances for the nomination.
Seeking to shore up support in Michigan, seen as the most competitive of the six states that hold primaries on Tuesday, Sanders canceled an event in Mississippi to attend one in Michigan instead.
Michigan has been seen as a state Sanders has to win in order to stay competitive in the race. However, a spokesperson for Sanders’ campaign said Michigan is not “ do-or-die mathematically.”
For his part, Sanders has vowed to press on regardless of the outcome in Michigan.